Goaltending is the tier-maker nobody predicts
NHL team rankings hinge on the one position that defies projection: a hot goalie drags a mid roster into a Cup run, and a cold crease sinks a stacked one. Cap health and playoff experience are the stable inputs, but the league's parity means the gap between a 3-seed and out-of-the-playoffs is a couple of bounces. Fan lists carry Original Six bias and rivalry taxes (Leafs placement is a personality test in Canada). Rank the roster on paper, then adjust a tier for whoever's tending the net in April.